Trade Volume Prediction Based on a Three-Stage Model When Arctic Sea Routes Open

With the advancement of global warming, Arctic sea routes (ASRs) may open for entire year. The ASRs will be far more competitive than they are now, and major international in future. To date, most studies have researched economic feasibility short term from a company’s perspective. help to plan shipping market future, we developed three-stage model simulate trade demand long term. This firstly considers seasonal ice dynamics future plans new paths vessels through Arctic. Additionally, an improved prediction was adapt long-term forecasts. After verification, accuracy found very high (R2 = 0.937). In comparison with another transportation cost model, our reasonable. study simulated volumes China, Europe (EU), North America (NA) 2100 open. results show that percentage port can up 26% representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6, 52% RCP8.5.